AI Analyst Summary
Upstart is executing a powerful AI-driven credit underwriting recovery, with EPS surging 211.2% YoY and revenue up 42.3%, compressing the forward P/E to just 9.1x — a striking disconnect from the trailing 58.3x that overstates current valuation risk. The expanding lender network and improving macro environment for personal loans position UPST for continued volume and margin growth. The key risk is macro sensitivity: a credit cycle deterioration or rising default rates could quickly reverse funding partner confidence and transaction volumes.
Fundamentals
Pe
Trailing P/E 58.3x / Forward P/E 9.1x · 3.0/5
Trailing P/E of 58.3x looks elevated on the surface, but the forward P/E of 9.1x signals a dramatic earnings ramp ahead. The gap between trailing and forward multiples reflects a company in rapid profitability recovery — neutral on trailing alone, but constructive on a forward basis.
Peg
N/A · 5.0/5
PEG is not reported, but with 211.2% YoY earnings growth, any reasonable PEG calculation would come in well below 1.0, indicating the stock is significantly undervalued relative to its growth trajectory. Scored favorably given the exceptional earnings expansion.
Analyst Rating
Buy consensus (2.1) · 4.0/5
Consensus of 2.1 from 15 analysts (8 Buy / 6 Hold / 1 Sell) reflects a broadly constructive outlook. The majority of coverage is bullish, with limited sell-side skepticism. Falls solidly in the Buy tier on the inverted scale.
Earnings Trend
EPS Growth +211.2% YoY / Revenue Growth +42.3% YoY · 5.0/5
Earnings growth of 211.2% YoY is exceptional and far exceeds the 25% threshold for a top score. Revenue growth of 42.3% provides a strong top-line foundation. The combination of accelerating profitability and robust revenue expansion signals a powerful earnings recovery cycle.
Price Target Beat
3 of 4 quarters beat (limited history) · 3.0/5
With only 4 quarters of data available, the beat rate of 3 of 4 is encouraging but insufficient to extrapolate a full 8-quarter trend. Scored at 3 per guidelines for limited history, with a slight positive lean given the recent consistency.
Management
Constructive — strong earnings recovery, bullish analyst trend · 4.0/5
Management has demonstrated effective execution through a dramatic profitability turnaround, evidenced by 211.2% earnings growth and a 3-of-4 recent beat rate. Analyst confidence is broadly positive. Capital allocation and AI-driven loan model refinements appear to be gaining traction, though the limited beat history warrants some conservatism.
● See the full picture
Get today's top-scored picks, ranked for you.
Compass screens thousands of stocks every morning and hands you a short list of high-conviction picks — scored, explained, and re-ranked to your risk profile.
Start free for 3 days →
No credit card. Then $9/month. Cancel anytime.
How Compass scores stocks
Compass pre-filters thousands of U.S. equities by fundamentals, then an AI analyst scores each finalist 1–5 across six measures — spanning valuation, growth, analyst sentiment, and management quality — into one composite score, refreshed every market morning. Browse all covered stocks →
Not financial advice.
Compass is an analytical tool, not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer.
Scores and recommendations are generated by AI, may be inaccurate or out of date, and are
not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including loss of
principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional.
About Compass.