AI Analyst Summary
UPS presents a recovery story anchored by a deeply discounted forward P/E of 12.9x and consistent near-term EPS outperformance, suggesting the market may be overly punishing a transitional earnings trough. Revenue growth of 7.6% confirms underlying demand for its integrated logistics network, and the Buy-leaning analyst consensus across 26 analysts reflects confidence in a normalization path. The central risk is the severity of the -53% YoY earnings collapse, which raises real questions about margin recovery speed and the durability of cost structure improvements.
Fundamentals
Pe
Trailing P/E 19.4x / Forward P/E 12.9x · 4.0/5
Trailing P/E of 19.4x is reasonable for the Industrials sector, but the forward P/E of 12.9x is meaningfully below the sector median, implying significant expected earnings recovery. Valuation looks attractive on a forward basis.
Peg
PEG Ratio: 1.63 · 3.0/5
PEG of 1.63 is moderate — not expensive, not cheap. Reflects a recovery earnings profile rather than a high-growth trajectory. In-line with sector peers for a mature logistics franchise.
Analyst Rating
Buy consensus (2.2) · 4.0/5
Consensus rating of 2.2 from 26 analysts (14 Buy / 12 Hold / 3 Sell) maps to a constructive Buy sentiment. Broad analyst coverage provides credibility to the rating. Capped slightly below 5 due to the significant Hold and Sell contingent.
Earnings Trend
EPS Growth YoY: -53.0% | Revenue Growth YoY: +7.6% · 1.0/5
A -53% YoY earnings decline is a severe red flag, even accounting for base-effect comparisons or one-time charges. Revenue growth of 7.6% shows operational demand remains, but the earnings collapse signals significant margin compression or cost headwinds. This is the most critical concern in the thesis.
Price Target Beat
EPS Beat Rate: 4 of 4 quarters · 4.0/5
Beating consensus EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 reported quarters demonstrates strong near-term execution and management credibility. Only scored 4 (not 5) due to the limited 4-quarter window vs. the preferred 8-quarter history.
Management
Consistent EPS beater with constructive analyst sentiment · 4.0/5
A 4-of-4 EPS beat streak combined with a broad Buy consensus from 26 analysts signals management is executing well on near-term guidance and maintaining investor confidence despite the earnings contraction. Capital allocation discipline warrants monitoring given the earnings decline.
● See the full picture
Get today's top-scored picks, ranked for you.
Compass screens thousands of stocks every morning and hands you a short list of high-conviction picks — scored, explained, and re-ranked to your risk profile.
Start free for 3 days →
No credit card. Then $9/month. Cancel anytime.
How Compass scores stocks
Compass pre-filters thousands of U.S. equities by fundamentals, then an AI analyst scores each finalist 1–5 across six measures — spanning valuation, growth, analyst sentiment, and management quality — into one composite score, refreshed every market morning. Browse all covered stocks →
Not financial advice.
Compass is an analytical tool, not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer.
Scores and recommendations are generated by AI, may be inaccurate or out of date, and are
not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including loss of
principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional.
About Compass.