● AI Equity Research · Technology

MongoDB, Inc. (MDB)

AI stock analysis · Software - Infrastructure · Last analyzed Aug 19, 2026

Compass Score

3.0/5

Call

Hold

Price

$434.62

AI Target

$409.82 -5.7%

AI Analyst Summary

MongoDB is a high-conviction growth story powered by its Atlas cloud database platform, which is driving 25%+ revenue growth as enterprises accelerate cloud-native application development. The company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, and 31 of 36 covering analysts rate it a Buy, reflecting strong confidence in the path to durable profitability. The primary risk is valuation: the stock currently trades above the analyst consensus price target of ~$410, meaning near-term upside is limited and any growth deceleration could trigger a sharp re-rating of the 59x forward multiple.

Catalysts

Atlas revenue acceleration: continued expansion of Atlas cloud database market share, with the next earnings report as a catalyst to confirm 25%+ revenue growth is holding or improving into FY2026.
Enterprise deal momentum: upselling multi-workload Atlas use cases (search, vector, time-series) to existing customers could drive net revenue retention above 120%, a key re-rating lever.
AI/vector database tailwinds: MongoDB Atlas Vector Search is positioned to capture developer spend on AI-native applications — any major partnership or enterprise AI deployment announcement could significantly boost sentiment.

Fundamentals

Pe Loss-making (Trailing P/E N/A); Forward P/E 59.2x · 2.0/5

No trailing P/E due to current losses. Forward P/E of 59.2x is elevated versus the software sector median, reflecting a premium growth valuation. Not egregiously expensive given the growth profile, but not cheap either.

Peg PEG 1.67 · 3.0/5

PEG of 1.67 sits in a moderate range — above the attractive sub-1.0 threshold but well below the 3.0 danger zone. Suggests the market is pricing in solid but not spectacular growth at current levels.

Analyst Rating Buy consensus (1.7) · 4.0/5

31 Buys, 8 Holds, and 1 Sell across 36 analysts yields a consensus of 1.7 — firmly in Buy territory with broad coverage and strong institutional conviction. Only a handful of holdouts tempers this from a perfect 5.

Earnings Trend Revenue growth +25.2% YoY; EPS trend improving · 4.0/5

Trailing EPS is not yet positive, but revenue is accelerating at 25%+ YoY, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, suggesting a clear path toward profitability. Growth is robust and consistent, meriting an above-average score.

Price Target Beat 4 of 4 quarters beat (last 4 available) · 3.0/5

With only 4 quarters of beat data available, a full 8-quarter history cannot be assessed. A perfect 4-for-4 recent beat rate is encouraging, but per scoring rules, insufficient history caps this at 3 — conservatively applied.

Management Consistent EPS beater; strong execution · 4.0/5

A flawless 4-for-4 EPS beat rate, combined with strong analyst consensus and sustained double-digit revenue growth, points to disciplined management execution. Capital allocation toward Atlas cloud growth and international expansion reflects strategic clarity. Scored 4 given limited multi-year beat history.

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