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AI Equity Research · Consumer Defensive

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

AI stock analysis · Discount Stores · Last analyzed Aug 18, 2026

Compass Score
3.0/5
Call
Hold
Price
$953.50
AI Target
$1077.31 +13.0%
AI Analyst Summary

Costco's bull thesis rests on its unrivaled membership-driven flywheel — 45.5% YoY EPS growth and 21.5% revenue growth demonstrate the model's compounding power, supported by continued warehouse expansion and member renewal rates near 93%. Analyst conviction is strong with 23 Buy ratings across 35 analysts and a consensus target implying ~13% upside. The central risk is valuation: at a P/E of 48.3x and PEG of 4.66, any deceleration in earnings growth or consumer spending pullback could trigger a meaningful de-rating.

Catalysts
Fundamentals
Pe Trailing P/E: 48.3x | Forward P/E: 42.1x · 1.0/5
Costco trades at a significant premium to the Consumer Defensive sector median. A trailing P/E of 48.3x and forward P/E of 42.1x are difficult to justify even with strong earnings growth, reflecting near-perfection already priced in.
Peg PEG Ratio: 4.66 · 1.0/5
A PEG of 4.66 is well above the 3.0 threshold that warrants a score of 1. Despite robust earnings growth, the market is pricing in an outsized growth premium that leaves little margin of safety.
Analyst Rating Buy consensus (2.0) · 4.0/5
Analyst consensus of 2.0 on the inverted scale maps to a Buy rating, supported by a strong breakdown of 23 Buy / 14 Hold / 2 Sell across 35 analysts — a well-covered and broadly constructive view.
Earnings Trend EPS Growth YoY: +45.5% | Revenue Growth YoY: +21.5% · 5.0/5
Earnings growth of 45.5% YoY is exceptional and well above the 25% threshold for a top score. Revenue growth of 21.5% provides strong underlying confirmation. The trend is clearly accelerating and broad-based.
Price Target Beat EPS Beat Rate: 4 of 4 quarters · 4.0/5
Costco has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 reported quarters. While the full 8-quarter history is not available to score a 5, the recent perfect beat rate signals consistent execution and disciplined management guidance.
Management Consistent execution with 4-for-4 EPS beats · 4.0/5
A perfect recent EPS beat rate, strong double-digit revenue growth, and broad analyst confidence point to a management team executing at a high level. Capital allocation remains focused on membership growth and warehouse expansion, reinforcing confidence.
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