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● AI Equity Research · Technology

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)

AI stock analysis · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · Last analyzed Aug 19, 2026

Compass Score
3.0/5
Call
Hold
Price
$1802.98
AI Target
$2181.14 +21.0%
AI Analyst Summary

ASML holds a near-monopoly on EUV lithography — the sole proven technology enabling leading-edge semiconductor nodes at 3nm and below — creating an unmatched structural moat that underpins 28.5% YoY EPS growth and 21.3% revenue expansion. With a forward P/E compressing toward 35x as the order backlog converts into revenue, and an overwhelming analyst consensus of 1.4 (Strong Buy), the bull thesis rests on secular AI-driven chipmaking capex powering a multi-year EUV upgrade cycle. The primary risk is order timing volatility, as ASML's concentrated customer base (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) and lumpy EUV system deliveries can produce sharp quarterly earnings misses that the premium valuation leaves little room to absorb.

Catalysts
Fundamentals
Pe Trailing P/E 64.1x / Forward P/E 35.1x · 2.0/5
Trailing P/E of 64.1x is well above the semiconductor equipment sector median, reflecting a significant valuation premium. However, the forward P/E of 35.1x is materially lower, suggesting strong near-term earnings growth. Still elevated in absolute terms, warranting a below-average score.
Peg PEG 2.22x · 3.0/5
PEG of 2.22x sits in the mid-range — not egregiously expensive, but not compelling either. It reflects meaningful growth expectations already priced in, landing squarely at neutral relative to peers.
Analyst Rating Strong Buy consensus (1.4) · 5.0/5
Consensus rating of 1.4 on an inverted scale maps to the highest conviction tier. With 39 Buy ratings against only 4 Holds and 1 Sell across 15 analysts, sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish and well above the 5-analyst threshold for full scoring.
Earnings Trend EPS growth +28.5% YoY / Revenue growth +21.3% YoY · 4.0/5
Earnings growth of 28.5% YoY is strong and above the 25% threshold, supported by robust 21.3% revenue growth. Falls just short of a 5 due to limited evidence of acceleration, but the overall trend is clearly constructive and above-average.
Price Target Beat 3 of 4 quarters beat (limited history) · 3.0/5
Only 4 quarters of EPS beat data are available, which is insufficient for full 8-quarter scoring. Scoring conservatively at 3. The 3-of-4 beat rate is positive but cannot be extrapolated with high confidence.
Management Above Average · 4.0/5
Strong and consistent earnings growth, near-monopoly execution in EUV lithography, and overwhelming analyst confidence point to a high-quality management team with disciplined capital allocation. The 3-of-4 EPS beat rate supports a 4 rating; insufficient history prevents a 5.
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