● AI Equity Research · Energy

Antero Resources Corporation (AR)

AI stock analysis · Oil & Gas E&P · Last analyzed Jul 8, 2026

Compass Score

3.0/5

Call

Hold

Price

$35.00

AI Target

$49.30 +40.9%

AI Analyst Summary

Antero Resources presents a compelling value and growth setup in natural gas E&P, with a 160.6% YoY earnings surge and a forward P/E of just 7.7x driving a PEG ratio of 0.62 — signaling the market is materially underpricing its growth. The analyst community is broadly constructive with 14 of 20 analysts rated Buy and a consensus price target of $49.30, implying ~41% upside from current levels. The key risk is execution inconsistency, as the company beat EPS estimates in only 1 of the last 4 quarters, raising questions about earnings quality and near-term predictability in a volatile commodity environment.

Catalysts

Natural gas price recovery: Any sustained rally in Henry Hub natural gas prices above $3.50/MMBtu would directly amplify realized revenues and further compress the forward P/E, potentially triggering a re-rating toward analyst targets.
Upcoming quarterly earnings report: With forward P/E at 7.7x and earnings growth running at 160%+, a return to EPS beat territory in the next reported quarter could restore execution confidence and drive multiple expansion.
Hedging book rollover and volume growth: As legacy lower-priced hedges roll off and production volumes grow, realized price improvement could meaningfully exceed current consensus estimates, creating positive earnings revision momentum.

Fundamentals

Pe Trailing P/E: 11.3x | Forward P/E: 7.7x · 5.0/5

Trailing P/E of 11.3x is materially below the energy sector median, and the forward P/E compressing to 7.7x signals strong earnings growth acceleration. Both metrics suggest the stock is meaningfully undervalued relative to its growth trajectory.

Peg PEG Ratio: 0.62 · 5.0/5

A PEG of 0.62 is well below the 1.0 threshold, indicating the market is significantly underpricing Antero's earnings growth. This is a strong value signal when paired with 160%+ YoY earnings growth.

Analyst Rating Buy consensus (1.7) · 4.0/5

Consensus rating of 1.7 across 20 analysts (14 Buy / 6 Hold / 0 Sell) reflects broad bullish sentiment with no sell-side opposition. The 20-analyst coverage base is robust and supports a score of 4.

Earnings Trend EPS Growth YoY: +160.6% | Revenue Growth YoY: +34.3% · 5.0/5

YoY earnings growth of 160.6% is exceptional and well above the 25% threshold for a top score. Revenue growth of 34.3% confirms this is not a one-time item but a broad-based improvement, likely driven by higher natural gas realizations and volume growth.

Price Target Beat EPS Beat Rate: 1 of 4 quarters · 2.0/5

Only 1 of the last 4 quarters resulted in an EPS beat, which is a meaningful red flag on near-term execution consistency. While earnings growth is strong in aggregate, the miss cadence suggests volatile or difficult-to-model results quarter to quarter.

Management Mixed execution signals · 3.0/5

Strong headline earnings growth and bullish analyst coverage are offset by a poor recent EPS beat rate (1 of 4 quarters), suggesting execution variability. Capital allocation in E&P is inherently commodity-driven, making a conservative neutral score appropriate here.

● See the full picture

Get today's top-scored picks, ranked for you.

Compass screens thousands of stocks every morning and hands you a short list of high-conviction picks — scored, explained, and re-ranked to your risk profile.

Start free for 3 days →

No credit card. Then $9/month. Cancel anytime.

How Compass scores stocks

Compass pre-filters thousands of U.S. equities by fundamentals, then an AI analyst scores each finalist 1–5 across six measures — spanning valuation, growth, analyst sentiment, and management quality — into one composite score, refreshed every market morning. Browse all covered stocks →

Not financial advice. Compass is an analytical tool, not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer. Scores and recommendations are generated by AI, may be inaccurate or out of date, and are not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional. About Compass.